Will gas hit __ by end of May?
Leader sits at 9% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ $4.60
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
↓ $4.25
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$373
thin orderbook
Closes
May 31, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will gas hit __ by end of May
Analysis
This market measures whether the average U.S. gas price will fall below $4.20 per gallon by May 31, 2026. Currently priced at 27%, the outcome leans toward gas staying above that threshold, though traders see material probability of a dip below it. Movement in crude oil prices and seasonal demand patterns heading into summer typically drive these contracts. The contract expires May 31, giving markets approximately 4 days to resolve; final weekly EIA petroleum inventory data and any last-minute crude price shifts before month-end will be the primary drivers of late movement. Polymarket volume ($1.55k across top contracts) suggests moderate but real trader interest, with the $4.60 ceiling contract commanding the most conviction.
- ›Current WTI crude and refined product prices are the primary physical determinant; a drop of 3-5% in crude would meaningfully increase downside probability
- ›EIA weekly petroleum inventory reports through May 28 will provide fresh supply/demand signals; larger-than-expected inventory builds could weaken prices
- ›Expiration is May 31, 2026 with only 4 calendar days remaining; limited time for new catalysts means current price trends dominate settlement risk
- ›The $4.60 contract leading at 27% suggests traders expect prices to cluster in the $4.25–$4.60 range, making sub-$4.20 a minority outcome
- ›Seasonal demand acceleration into summer typically supports prices, providing structural headwind against a sharp month-end decline
What moved the line
- May 28↓ $4.25↓10pp19→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 27↓ $4.25↑7pp12→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 28↑ $4.60↓5pp12→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 27↑ $4.60↓3pp15→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 27↓ $4.20↑3pp9→12¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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