Will Green Bay win the Pro Football NFC North Division?

32¢

Bid/Ask 32/33¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $2.89·OI $3,613.95·Closes Jan 25, 2027·281d remaining

KXNFLNFCNORTH-27-GB

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Green Bay's 32¢ price reflects a modest one-in-three chance of winning the NFC North, with a negligible 1¢ spread indicating tight pricing despite thin $96.95 daily volume. The asymmetric implied yields—275% for Yes versus 61% for No—suggest the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty, though the 138% risk-adjusted yield indicates moderate expected returns after accounting for tail risk. The near-perfect cross-venue alignment (32¢ on Kalshi versus 31¢ on Polymarket) and low Cliff Risk Index of 2 suggest this is a fairly stable market with 282 days to expiry, though the modest $3,613.95 open interest warrants caution on position sizing.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 28¢(Δ +4¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.85IY 361.4%Close-time delta 519h

Resolution rules

If Green Bay wins the Pro Football NFC North Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 275.7%

IY (No) 61.1%

Adj IY 138%

CRI 2

Overround -0.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	275.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	61.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	138%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 8:04:44 AM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 7:53:35 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNFLNFCNORTH-27-GB yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →