SimpleFunctions
4 source contracts·Kalshi 4·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 25, 2027 · 127d

Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 4 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

24%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

24%

4 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$8K

4 contracts

Closes

Jan 25, 2027

127 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 27% (24 days, 24 points)Aggregate: 27% on 2026-09-19
Aggregate of 4 contracts · 24d

Bracket families

4 clusters across 4 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC North Division

1 contract$4K

Cluster 2

Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division

1 contract$2K

Cluster 3

Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC North Division

1 contract$1K

Cluster 4

Will Green Bay win the Pro Football NFC North Division

1 contract$795

Analysis

This probability indicates that betting markets assign a 25% chance Detroit wins the NFC North division title in the 2026 NFL season. The market prices Detroit slightly below Green Bay (26%) but well ahead of Chicago (21%) and Minnesota (19%), suggesting relatively balanced competition across the division. The probability reflects expectations about roster strength, quarterback performance, and playoff positioning. Key drivers include whether Detroit's offensive weapons remain healthy, how effectively the defense performs against divisional rivals, and whether the team can sustain recent competitive improvements. The division winner will be determined through the 17-game regular season concluding in early January 2027, with playoff implications finalized by the end of the season. Current market depth appears limited, with the Detroit contract showing $808 in 24-hour volume compared to over $8,400 for the Minnesota contract, suggesting less trading interest or conviction around Detroit's chances relative to division peers.

  • Detroit's quarterback health and offensive line performance throughout the 2026 regular season
  • Win-loss records in head-to-head matchups between Detroit and other NFC North teams
  • Whether Detroit's defense maintains or improves on previous season performance metrics against divisional opponents
  • Injury status of key players on competitive division rivals (Minnesota, Green Bay, Chicago) as season progresses
  • Playoff positioning and tiebreaker scenarios in final weeks that could affect division title outcomes

What moved the line

  • Sep 17Chicago9pp2130¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 17Green Bay8pp2517¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 18Chicago7pp3037¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 18Minnesota3pp1720¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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