Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 25, 2027
233 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC North Division
Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Minnesota
KXNFLNFCNORTH-27-MIN
Cluster 2
Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division
Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Detroit
KXNFLNFCNORTH-27-DET
Cluster 3
Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC North Division
Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Chicago
KXNFLNFCNORTH-27-CHI
Cluster 4
Will Green Bay win the Pro Football NFC North Division
Will Green Bay win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Green Bay
KXNFLNFCNORTH-27-GB
Analysis
This probability reflects market estimates that Detroit has a 26% chance of winning the NFC North Division in the 2026 NFL season. The Lions' division prospects depend on their competitive standing relative to Green Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago—teams with established quarterback situations and playoff histories. Factors affecting this estimate include Detroit's offseason roster moves, injury status of key players, and performance through early season games. The division outcome will be determined through regular season play, with meaningful data points emerging as teams play through fall 2026. Current market pricing suggests investors view Detroit as a viable but not favored contender in a competitive division.
- ›Detroit's current roster composition and any major offseason acquisitions or departures compared to division rivals
- ›Historical win-loss performance of Detroit versus other NFC North teams over the past 2-3 seasons
- ›Quarterback performance and health status for Detroit and competing teams entering the 2026 season
- ›Injury trends affecting key defensive and offensive contributors for all four division teams
- ›Head-to-head scheduling and strength of schedule effects within the division for the 2026 season
What moved the line
- Jun 2Minnesota↑3pp18→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Minnesota↓3pp21→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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