Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 25, 2027
127 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC North Division
Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Chicago
KXNFLNFCNORTH-27-CHI
Cluster 2
Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division
Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Detroit
KXNFLNFCNORTH-27-DET
Cluster 3
Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC North Division
Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Minnesota
KXNFLNFCNORTH-27-MIN
Cluster 4
Will Green Bay win the Pro Football NFC North Division
Will Green Bay win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Green Bay
KXNFLNFCNORTH-27-GB
Analysis
This probability indicates that betting markets assign a 25% chance Detroit wins the NFC North division title in the 2026 NFL season. The market prices Detroit slightly below Green Bay (26%) but well ahead of Chicago (21%) and Minnesota (19%), suggesting relatively balanced competition across the division. The probability reflects expectations about roster strength, quarterback performance, and playoff positioning. Key drivers include whether Detroit's offensive weapons remain healthy, how effectively the defense performs against divisional rivals, and whether the team can sustain recent competitive improvements. The division winner will be determined through the 17-game regular season concluding in early January 2027, with playoff implications finalized by the end of the season. Current market depth appears limited, with the Detroit contract showing $808 in 24-hour volume compared to over $8,400 for the Minnesota contract, suggesting less trading interest or conviction around Detroit's chances relative to division peers.
- ›Detroit's quarterback health and offensive line performance throughout the 2026 regular season
- ›Win-loss records in head-to-head matchups between Detroit and other NFC North teams
- ›Whether Detroit's defense maintains or improves on previous season performance metrics against divisional opponents
- ›Injury status of key players on competitive division rivals (Minnesota, Green Bay, Chicago) as season progresses
- ›Playoff positioning and tiebreaker scenarios in final weeks that could affect division title outcomes
What moved the line
- Sep 17Chicago↑9pp21→30¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Green Bay↓8pp25→17¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Chicago↑7pp30→37¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Minnesota↑3pp17→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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