SimpleFunctions
4 source contracts·Kalshi 4·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 25, 2027 · 233d

Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 4 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

25%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

25%

4 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$1K

4 contracts

Closes

Jan 25, 2027

233 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 21% (29 days, 29 points)Aggregate: 21% on 2026-06-06
Aggregate of 4 contracts · 29d

Bracket families

4 clusters across 4 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC North Division

1 contract$537

Cluster 2

Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division

1 contract$293

Cluster 3

Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC North Division

1 contract$192

Cluster 4

Will Green Bay win the Pro Football NFC North Division

1 contract$69

Analysis

This probability reflects market estimates that Detroit has a 26% chance of winning the NFC North Division in the 2026 NFL season. The Lions' division prospects depend on their competitive standing relative to Green Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago—teams with established quarterback situations and playoff histories. Factors affecting this estimate include Detroit's offseason roster moves, injury status of key players, and performance through early season games. The division outcome will be determined through regular season play, with meaningful data points emerging as teams play through fall 2026. Current market pricing suggests investors view Detroit as a viable but not favored contender in a competitive division.

  • Detroit's current roster composition and any major offseason acquisitions or departures compared to division rivals
  • Historical win-loss performance of Detroit versus other NFC North teams over the past 2-3 seasons
  • Quarterback performance and health status for Detroit and competing teams entering the 2026 season
  • Injury trends affecting key defensive and offensive contributors for all four division teams
  • Head-to-head scheduling and strength of schedule effects within the division for the 2026 season

What moved the line

  • Jun 2Minnesota3pp1821¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 3Minnesota3pp2118¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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