Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
This contract is priced at 11¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 10¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 2¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$126.4M
Best sibling
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner : Saudi Arabia 0¢
Ticker
0x2cd4df59…e6b7
Price history
11¢ current
−9¢Orderbook snapshot
10 / 12¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x2cd4df59…e6b7
Event family
Middle East / Israel.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$126.4M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30 100¢
Current share
0%
June 30, 2026
polymarket · 0x2cd4df599867b14e835436e67e524cd04bbd67eaa6454c07b294d9dd0470e6b7
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner : Saudi Arabia
polymarket · 0x3fb8a8de2ac275882d72b2c4f22d41776fcf033f9e413a77a84dd395c0d5257c
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner : Jordan
polymarket · 0x33a87d02fa01e958929385c74b8627d32cc4474e9ebd312d268865c5207147fa
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner : Qatar
polymarket · 0x4fe305a2ae995a52ff278895344895fe587b4fec3d5f04347b4dbf5e99bce99c
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner : Egypt
polymarket · 0x7412d284c8f63791fec807f9b1f61c6fe61163621775a3dc8686cd2575272abe
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30
polymarket · 0xf220061c0e83defd413070f97fb55660485ca8540c43be13d9e71082ca2cad57
June 30
polymarket · 0x865303ccb9a48341d1bae33b3b4379ca86d5abbff3ce1e132716631cc0af3cce
Eurovision Winner 2026: Israel
polymarket · 0x6680cae9b37261f6c1ec3313f9ad175708bb9722e94285b5b0a5b50a9972d312
3
polymarket · 0x497a043a5a848906d653e4a60e34df7131a9d7e059ce2ce70f05b4311360c9cf
December 31
polymarket · 0xd1796c09d0d6f876f8580086ae9808ec991784e3a74b25a1830a25de71a78c96
4
polymarket · 0x4437c8690e2edae1ab7acb0dcb40e536109ae6366e630d97f0bd764c9545ae57
Netanyahu - Israel PM
polymarket · 0x6f416ddd0d4e15ad8d76fff96851a154c16713a26aafc753173c49acf5c6eb74
Naftali Bennett
polymarket · 0x9ed0ecc8b8589e67967d44c4420944a41b6a6806419019a1581d514174eee9b1
Next French Presidential Election: Jordan Bardella
polymarket · 0x1166388a24a3f2a9bb0a45956bdb205c70f0ecafb8539e277a57adf022e306be
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Mohammed bin Salman
polymarket · 0x8f77f96697dea0909edb2946e0eb866c08e9c2280964e70b1e5f25fcc0a747d0
Benjamin Netanyahu
polymarket · 0x7586a96520578acaaaa4ea84a2582f197f84255da1f3392a7aa300386c187b37
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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