Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30 is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
5¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Outcome
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$434K
Identifier
0x2cd4df59...e6b7
Jun 19, 2026, 1:12 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$434K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x2cd4df59…e6b7
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$434K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30 5¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.