Will Hamas agree to disarm by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
11%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$12K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
57 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Hamas agree to disarm by
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?: June 30, 2026
0x2cd4df…e6b7
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Hamas will agree to fully disarm by a specified date. The current 23% level suggests traders view disarmament as unlikely within the timeframe, reflecting Hamas's historical resistance to surrendering military capabilities and the broader geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Key factors driving the assessment include the organization's stated commitment to armed struggle, the absence of credible peace negotiations that would mandate disarmament, and the fragmented nature of Palestinian governance. The main catalyst would be any major breakthrough in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations or a significant shift in regional power dynamics. The 13-percentage-point gap between venues suggests some disagreement about baseline assumptions, with Kalshi traders pricing in modestly higher probability than Polymarket participants.
- ›Hamas's official charter and repeated public statements rejecting disarmament as a precondition for negotiations
- ›Current state of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and whether they include binding disarmament clauses
- ›Regional military balance and whether external actors (Iran, Gulf states) would pressure or support disarmament
- ›Historical precedent: whether any Palestinian armed group has voluntarily agreed to full disarmament in comparable circumstances
- ›Timeline specificity: the resolution date matters significantly—longer timeframes increase probability of political change
What moved the line
- Apr 29June 30, 2026↓8pp25→17¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28June 30, 2026↑7pp18→25¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (11% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.