Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 9 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
19%
9 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$159K
9 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
196 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will the US” vs “Will Russia”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the US
Cluster 2
Will Russia
Cluster 3
Will Hamas agree to disarm by
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?: June 30, 2026
0x2cd4df…e6b7
Cluster 4
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?: December 31
0x2f224f…519d
Cluster 5
Will US withdraw from NATO by
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?: December 31
0x09bd89…d7c9
What moved the line
- Jun 14June 30, 2026↓11pp40→29¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12June 30, 2026↑6pp29→35¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15June 30, 2026↑6pp29→35¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13June 30, 2026↑5pp35→40¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 18June 30, 2026↓4pp33→29¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in ukraine
- Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...last 3% · 0d
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30last 3% · 0d
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by...last 64% · 0d
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026last 3% · 0d
- Will Russia capture Lyman by...last 3% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in ukraine.
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
Russia Captures Ukrainian Town: War Odds Flip
The probability of Russia capturing all of Hryshyne by May 31 jumped 59¢ to 83¢, signaling a major battlefield gain. This has knock-on effects for Ukraine peace deal markets and oil supply concerns from potential disruptions in the Black Sea.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.