Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
21%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$236K
20 contracts
Top contract
11¢
$46K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Russia” vs “Will the US”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Russia
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?: June 30
0x445895…7e4b
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?: December 31, 2026
0x7e50b6…4009
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?: June 30, 2026
0xb23587…78fe
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...?: July 31
0xe271ff…9e0a
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?: May 31, 2026
0xc13c31…bdc2
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by...?: May 31
0x5298a3…fd39
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...?: May 31
0x6fd1df…af1c
Cluster 2
Will the US
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?: September 30
0xace3c7…62a9
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?: December 31
0x747dc8…1f75
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?: June 30
0xa7962b…c4cb
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?: December 31
0x328517…58f4
Cluster 3
Will Ukraine re-enter
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?: May 31
0x50544b…e6bf
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by...?: May 31
0x8f999c…8c07
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31?
0x5092e8…8eb9
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?: May 31
0x03c903…8888
Cluster 4
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by
Cluster 5
Will Hamas agree to disarm by
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?: June 30, 2026
0x2cd4df…e6b7
Cluster 6
What will happen before GTA VI
What will happen before GTA VI?: Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
0x9c1a95…5763
Cluster 7
Will US withdraw from NATO by
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?: December 31
0x09bd89…d7c9
What moved the line
- Apr 28June 30↑22pp6→28¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29June 30↓20pp28→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 2December 31↓17pp30→13¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28December 31↑16pp14→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 1May 31↓16pp46→30¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Other questions in ukraine.
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske: Battlefield Market Resolves at 93¢
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' contract surged +88¢ to 93¢ in a single session, one of the largest single-day moves in the entire dataset. The May 31 version also jumped +79¢ to 96¢. This near-certain resolution suggests Ukrainian forces have successfully re-entered the contested town of Rodynske.
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske — Biggest Battlefield Move in Prediction Markets
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' market exploded +92¢ to 96¢, one of the single largest moves in the entire dataset today. This effectively confirms Ukrainian forces have re-taken the town of Rodynske, representing a significant tactical reversal in the Donetsk region.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.