Will Harry Kane lead FIFA World Cup in Goals for the 2026 World Cup Full Tournament?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Harry Kane lead FIFA World Cup in Goals for the 2026 World Cup Full Tournament?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing August 7, 2026. This market displays extreme yield asymmetry with a 2917.5% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 36.0% on the No side, suggesting the 13¢ price significantly undervalues Kane's chances relative to typical prediction market pricing.
Analysis
This market displays extreme yield asymmetry with a 2917.5% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 36.0% on the No side, suggesting the 13¢ price significantly undervalues Kane's chances relative to typical prediction market pricing. The 3¢ spread is notably wide for a $15K open interest contract, and the modest $565 daily volume indicates thin liquidity that could amplify price volatility as the August 2026 World Cup approaches. Kane's recent price recovery from 8¢ to 10¢ over seven days combined with the extreme cliff risk index of 9 suggests this contract is sensitive to news events, making it a high-risk, high-reward position for believers in Kane's tournament performance.
Resolution rules
If Harry Kane leads FIFA World Cup in Goals for the 2026 World Cup Full Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
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sf trade KXWCGOALLEADER-26-HKAN yes 100