Will Lamine Yamal lead FIFA World Cup in Goals for the 2026 World Cup Full Tournament?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Lamine Yamal lead FIFA World Cup in Goals for the 2026 World Cup Full Tournament?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing August 7, 2026. The market prices Yamal at just 9¢ despite an extraordinarily high implied yield of 5,081% on the Yes side, reflecting the extreme long-shot nature of a 20-year-old leading the tournament in goals—a feat requiring both elite performance and favorable circumstances.
Analysis
The market prices Yamal at just 9¢ despite an extraordinarily high implied yield of 5,081% on the Yes side, reflecting the extreme long-shot nature of a 20-year-old leading the tournament in goals—a feat requiring both elite performance and favorable circumstances. With $17,712 in open interest but only $478 in 24-hour volume and a 3¢ spread, liquidity is thin relative to open positions, suggesting potential difficulty exiting positions. The price has declined from 7¢ to 6¢ over seven days with 113 days to expiry, indicating modest downward pressure as the market approaches the tournament window.
Resolution rules
If Lamine Yamal leads FIFA World Cup in Goals for the 2026 World Cup Full Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWCGOALLEADER-26-LYAM yes 100