Ilia Topuria · KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN14TOPGAE
Ilia Topuria is priced at 82¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 81¢ bid, 82¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN14TOPGAE.
Price history
82¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If Ilia Topuria wins the Topuria vs Gaethje professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ilia Topuria
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Ilia Topuria 81¢
Range
18¢-81¢
Family volume
$47K
Identifier
KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN14TOPGAE-TOP
May 27, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
81¢
Ask
82¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$5K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN14TOPGAE
Closes
Jun 29, 2026
Family volume
$47K
Orderbook snapshot
81 / 82¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Ilia Topuria wins the Topuria vs Gaethje professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 29, 2026
Identifier
KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN14TOPGAE-TOP
Event family
KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN14TOPGAE.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$47K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Ilia Topuria 81¢
Current share
11%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 82% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.