Will Francis Marshall win the Marshall vs Brennan professional MMA fight scheduled for Apr 25, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$241K
20 contracts
Closes
Jul 26, 2026
33 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Conor McGregor win the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026
Cluster 2
Will Max Holloway win the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026
Cluster 3
Will Julius Walker win the Yakhyaev vs Walker professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 4
Will Rafael Fiziev win the Fiziev vs Torres professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 5
Will Theodor Berggren win the Donchenko vs Berggren professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 6
Will Manuel Torres win the Fiziev vs Torres professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 7
Will Brunno Ferreira win the Aliskerov vs Ferreira professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 8
Will Tahir Abdullayev win the Abdullayev vs Nascimento professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 9
Will Charles Johnson win the Almabayev vs Johnson professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 10
Will Michal Oleksiejczuk win the Magomedov vs Oleksiejczuk professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 11
Will Asu Almabayev win the Almabayev vs Johnson professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 12
Will Michel Pereira win the Magomedov vs Pereira professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 13
Will Jefferson Nascimento win the Abdullayev vs Nascimento professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 14
Will Abusupiyan Magomedov win the Magomedov vs Oleksiejczuk professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 15
Will Matheus Camilo win the Sadykhov vs Camilo professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 16
Will Kaan Ofli win the Ofli vs Reyes professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 17
Will Sharabutdin Magomedov win the Magomedov vs Pereira professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 18
Will Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev win the Yakhyaev vs Walker professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 19
Will Jean Matsumoto win the Almakhan vs Matsumoto professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Cluster 20
Will Bekzat Almakhan win the Almakhan vs Matsumoto professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026
Analysis
This market reflects traders' assessment that Francis Marshall has roughly even odds of defeating Brennan in their scheduled April 25, 2026 MMA fight. The 48% probability suggests the match is viewed as competitive, though slightly favoring Brennan. Factors influencing this level include each fighter's recent performance record, head-to-head matchup dynamics, and any physical or stylistic advantages. The fight itself on April 25 will provide definitive resolution—the outcome depends on how the bout plays out in real time across multiple rounds. Marshall would need to execute his strategy effectively against Brennan's specific strengths to move from slight underdog to victor. Current contract volume and Kalshi pricing suggest moderate but not exceptionally high trader interest in this particular matchup compared to other scheduled fights.
- ›Marshall's recent fight results and win-loss record relative to Brennan's comparable statistics
- ›Stylistic matchup dynamics, including striking range, grappling ability, and cardio profiles of both fighters
- ›Injury status or training camp updates for either fighter prior to April 25
- ›Head-to-head record if fighters have previously competed, or comparable opponent records if this is a new matchup
- ›Betting volume and price movement on Kalshi contracts relative to similar MMA fights, indicating trader confidence level
What moved the line
- Jun 23Jefferson Nascimento↓38pp63→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Tahir Abdullayev↑29pp33→62¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Jefferson Nascimento↑29pp34→63¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Michel Pereira↑4pp22→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Theodor Berggren↑3pp18→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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