Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026 is priced at 9¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 8¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
9¢ current
−44¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$132K
Identifier
0xc298e10d...3258
May 28, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$59K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$132K
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 9¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xc298e10d…3258
Event family
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$132K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026 9¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.