Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
10%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$30K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
217 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
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Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Israel will reestablish diplomatic representation in Iran through reopening an embassy at any point during 2026. The 8% assessment reflects the current geopolitical reality: Israel and Iran have no formal diplomatic relations, and recent years have seen escalating tensions rather than reconciliation. The probability would increase if there were significant peace negotiations, major shifts in regional conflict dynamics, or unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs involving international mediators. It would decrease if hostilities intensify or if statements from either government explicitly rule out normalization. The trajectory of ongoing ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and broader regional stability through mid-2026 represents the primary factor that could shift this probability, as any major escalation would make diplomatic opening even less likely, while genuine de-escalation could create space for dialogue.
- ›No Israeli diplomatic presence currently exists in Iran; reopening would require formal recognition and bilateral agreement from both governments
- ›Recent regional escalations, including drone attacks and military strikes between Israel and Iran, have moved away from diplomatic engagement
- ›Any embassy reopening would likely require international mediation and broader regional peace frameworks, not unilateral action
- ›Israeli government statements and Iranian government statements throughout 2026 will signal actual willingness to normalize relations
- ›The timeline is constrained: an embassy must functionally open and be verified as operational before December 31, 2026 for contract resolution
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as Deadlines Pass
Markets for a permanent US‑Iran peace deal by May 26 hit 0¢, and later deadlines (June 7, June 15) also fell by 3‑4¢. Meanwhile, internet restoration in Iran soared 42¢ to 67¢, suggesting a possible regime concession or internal change.
Iran Peace Deal Odds Surge as Diplomacy Heats Up
Markets are pricing a rapidly increasing probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal, with the July 31 contract jumping 15¢ to 54¢ and the June 30 contract up 13¢ to 42¢. A US blockade lift announcement by June 30 surged 18¢ to 64¢, signaling that de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz may be imminent.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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