Enrique Tarrio · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that
Enrique Tarrio is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 31¢ bid, 33¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 6 inside Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that.
Price history
34¢ current
+27¢Contract brief
If Enrique Tarrio has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Enrique Tarrio
Rank
#2 of 6
Leader
Anyone 35¢
Range
7¢-35¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXTRUMPWEP-27-ETAR
May 28, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
31¢
Ask
33¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$100
Family rank
#2 of 6
6 outcomes · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
31 / 33¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Enrique Tarrio has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTRUMPWEP-27-ETAR
Event family
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Anyone 35¢
Current share
6%
Anyone
kalshi · KXTRUMPWEP-27-JAN01
Enrique Tarrio
kalshi · KXTRUMPWEP-27-ETAR
Mike Lindell
kalshi · KXTRUMPWEP-27-MLIN
Michael Caputo
kalshi · KXTRUMPWEP-27-MCAP
Kash Patel
kalshi · KXTRUMPWEP-27-KPET
Hunter Biden
kalshi · KXTRUMPWEP-27-HBID
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 34% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.