Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Hunter Biden has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 34% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Anyone
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
Enrique Tarrio
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$335
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
217 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that anyone has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027?: Anyone
KXTRUMPWEP-27-JAN01
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Michael Caputo has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027?: Michael Caputo
KXTRUMPWEP-27-MCAP
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Mike Lindell has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027?: Mike Lindell
KXTRUMPWEP-27-MLIN
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Enrique Tarrio has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027?: Enrique Tarrio
KXTRUMPWEP-27-ETAR
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Kash Patel has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027?: Kash Patel
KXTRUMPWEP-27-KPET
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Hunter Biden has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027?: Hunter Biden
KXTRUMPWEP-27-HBID
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Hunter Biden will be reported to have received a monetary payment from the Department of Justice's Anti-Weaponization Fund by year-end 2026. The 7% market price suggests traders view this as unlikely compared to other named recipients, with Enrique Tarrio at 27% and the broader "Anyone" category at 30%. The relatively low probability may reflect limited public information about the fund's operations, eligibility criteria, and intended beneficiaries since its May 2026 establishment. Key drivers include whether the DOJ will make payments before 2027, which individuals or groups qualify, and whether such payments would be publicly reported by relevant agencies. Resolution depends on disclosures from source agencies monitoring fund distribution, with the year-end deadline creating a defined window for verification.
- ›The Anti-Weaponization Fund was established May 18, 2026, providing only 7.5 months to distribute funds and generate public reporting before the resolution date of January 1, 2027
- ›Market pricing shows Hunter Biden at 7 cents versus Enrique Tarrio at 27 cents and "Anyone" at 30 cents, suggesting traders view his eligibility or likelihood of receiving payments as lower than other specified individuals
- ›No publicly available information exists yet about fund eligibility criteria, application processes, or preliminary payment decisions as of May 2026
- ›The contract requires reporting 'by any of the Source Agencies' rather than mere confirmation of payment, adding an additional dependency on disclosure
- ›Zero trading volume on the Hunter Biden contract in the past 24 hours indicates minimal recent market interest or new information flowing into this specific outcome
What moved the line
- May 27Enrique Tarrio↑16pp15→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Mike Lindell↑10pp7→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 25Enrique Tarrio↑8pp7→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Anyone↑6pp26→32¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Anyone↓3pp29→26¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBCDemocratlast 87% · 0d
- TX-18 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 89% · 1d
- TX-33 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 90% · 1d
- Will Trump say "Autism" before Apr 27, 2026last 15% · 3d
- Will Brentford be Relegated from English Premier League in 2025-26 Seasonlast 94% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.