SimpleFunctions

Before Jul 1, 2026 · Will Jessica Tisch leave NYPD Commissioner before J

Before Jul 1, 2026 is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Will Jessica Tisch leave NYPD Commissioner before J.

Price history

15¢ current

13¢
0¢25¢
May 22, 2026May 26, 2026

Contract brief

If Jessica Tisch has either officially announced their intention to leave NYPD Commissioner or has actually left NYPD Commissioner before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Before Jul 1, 2026

Rank

#2 of 2

Leader

Before Jan 1, 2027 53¢

Range

4¢-53¢

Family volume

$4

Identifier

KXLEAVETISCH-27JAN01-26JUL

May 26, 2026, 2:08 AM UTC · 15m ago

Implied probability

15¢
Latest venue quote
May 26, 2026, 2:08 AM UTC · 15m ago

Bid

Ask

12¢

Spread

Reported volume

$477

Family rank

#2 of 2

2 outcomes · Will Jessica Tisch leave NYPD Commissioner before J

Closes

Jul 1, 2026

Family volume

$4

Orderbook snapshot

4 / 12¢

Kalshi
8¢ spread
BidSize
100¢50
4¢5
3¢100
2¢263
AskSize
12¢6
18¢236
19¢121
20¢200

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Jessica Tisch has either officially announced their intention to leave NYPD Commissioner or has actually left NYPD Commissioner before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 1, 2026

Identifier

KXLEAVETISCH-27JAN01-26JUL

SF Signal
SF Index
12140.70
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will Jessica Tisch leave NYPD Commissioner before J.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$4

Outcomes

2

Highest price

Before Jan 1, 2027 53¢

Current share

0%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

24281.4%
42.2%
Adj IY
12141%
24

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.