Joe Males · KXCAPRIMARY-2526
Joe Males is priced at 96¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 86¢ bid, 93¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside KXCAPRIMARY-2526.
Price history
96¢ current
+30¢Contract brief
If Joe Males advances in the 2026 CA-25 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Joe Males
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Joe Males 86¢
Range
1¢-86¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXCAPRIMARY-2526-JMAL
May 24, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
86¢
Ask
93¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$5K
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · KXCAPRIMARY-2526
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
86 / 93¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Joe Males advances in the 2026 CA-25 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXCAPRIMARY-2526-JMAL
Event family
KXCAPRIMARY-2526.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Joe Males 86¢
Current share
—
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 96% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.