SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 California Primary Election Markets — 58 contracts, SF signal on every row.

58 live Kalshi contracts (268 audited). Median implied probability sits at 9%. 3 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXCAPRIMARY-35FIRST26-MCAR +8c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 33.3pp · cheapest KXCAPRIMARY-01FIRST26-TKEL · richest KXCAPRIMARY-03FIRST26-ABER.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXCAPRIMARY.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXCAPRIMARY
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXCAPRIMARY
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXCAPRIMARY",
    "label": "2026 California Primary Election Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 58,
    "volume24hSum": 759.55,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00019
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 26 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100-14.0
Vol Flow$760-85%
min $30max $7.6K
Breadth-100%0.0pp
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 07:00 UTC
Jun 19past 7d · UTCJun 26 · 06:23

Live contracts

58

Median IY

9¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$760

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+8¢

KXCAPRIMARY-35FIRST26-MCAR

2026 California Primary Election Markets — liquidity topography (top 6 of 58 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 2.3 → 1768.5%

$10$1001d7d30d90d365d1768.5885.42.3

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 California Primary Election Markets

Showing top 20 of 58

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Randy Villegas place first in the 2026 CA-22 primary?: Randy Villegas8¢
IY 847%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$201
Will Mike Thompson place first in the 2026 CA-04 primary?: Mike Thompson92¢
IY 6.4%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$200
Will Ami Bera place first in the 2026 CA-03 primary?: Ami Bera97¢
IY 2.3%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$200
Will Jotham Stein place first in the 2026 CA-16 primary?: Jotham Stein4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$92
Will Norma Torres place first in the 2026 CA-35 primary?: Norma Torres97¢
IY 2.3%Cliff 32Edge —RVol 239%Resid —$62
Will Mike Cargile place first in the 2026 CA-35 primary?: Mike Cargile10¢
IY 663%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$5
Will Jeff Belle place first in the 2026 CA-52 primary?: Jeff Belle9¢
IY 745%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Sonia Kacker place first in the 2026 CA-26 primary?: Sonia Kacker3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will George Whitesides place first in the 2026 CA-27 primary?: George Whitesides4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Jason Gibbs place first in the 2026 CA-27 primary?: Jason Gibbs88¢
IY 10%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Judy Chu place first in the 2026 CA-28 primary?: Judy Chu96¢
IY 3.1%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Luz Rivas place first in the 2026 CA-29 primary?: Luz Rivas95¢
IY 3.9%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Rudy Melendez place first in the 2026 CA-29 primary?: Rudy Melendez27¢
IY 199%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Laura Friedman place first in the 2026 CA-30 primary?: Laura Friedman95¢
IY 3.9%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Larry Thompson place first in the 2026 CA-32 primary?: Larry Thompson10¢
IY 663%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Jimmy Gomez place first in the 2026 CA-34 primary?: Jimmy Gomez96¢
IY 3.1%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Frederick Reardon place first in the 2026 CA-36 primary?: Frederick Reardon6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Sydney Kamlager-Dove place first in the 2026 CA-37 primary?: Sydney Kamlager-Dove95¢
IY 3.9%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Mark Takano place first in the 2026 CA-39 primary?: Mark Takano96¢
IY 3.1%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Mitch Clemmons place first in the 2026 CA-41 primary?: Mitch Clemmons9¢
IY 745%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
58 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 California Primary Election Markets

From market_changes
14h agoKalshi
Will Mike Cargile place first in the 2026 CA-35 primary?: Mike Cargile
10¢2→10 (+8)
open →
1d agoKalshi
Will Scott Peters place first in the 2026 CA-50 primary?: Scott Peters
92¢97→92 (-5)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Will Scott Peters place first in the 2026 CA-50 primary?: Scott Peters
97¢92→97 (+5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 26 Jun 2026 06:38:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXCAPRIMARY →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →