SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 California Primary Election Markets — 55 contracts, SF signal on every row.

55 live Kalshi contracts (268 audited). Median implied probability sits at 9%. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 33.3pp · cheapest KXCAPRIMARY-01FIRST26-TKEL · richest KXCAPRIMARY-35FIRST26-NTOR.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXCAPRIMARY.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXCAPRIMARY
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXCAPRIMARY
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXCAPRIMARY",
    "label": "2026 California Primary Election Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 55,
    "volume24hSum": 752,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00019
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 25 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100-130.0
Vol Flow$752-89%
min $30max $7.6K
Breadth-100%-100.0pp
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 00:30 UTC
Jun 18past 7d · UTCJun 24 · 22:23

Live contracts

55

Median IY

9¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$752

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

—

no 24h moves

2026 California Primary Election Markets — liquidity topography (top 2 of 55 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 1763.9 → 2376.4%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d365d2376.42070.21763.9

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 California Primary Election Markets

Showing top 20 of 55

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Connie Chan place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary?: Connie Chan3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$715
Will George Whitesides place first in the 2026 CA-27 primary?: George Whitesides4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$37
Will Chuong Vo place first in the 2026 CA-45 primary?: Chuong Vo5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will David Pan place first in the 2026 CA-46 primary?: David Pan9¢
IY 743%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Dave Min place first in the 2026 CA-47 primary?: Dave Min96¢
IY 3.1%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Mike Levin place first in the 2026 CA-49 primary?: Mike Levin96¢
IY 3.1%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Star Parker place first in the 2026 CA-49 primary?: Star Parker7¢
IY 976%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Scott Peters place first in the 2026 CA-50 primary?: Scott Peters97¢
IY 2.3%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Sara Jacobs place first in the 2026 CA-51 primary?: Sara Jacobs96¢
IY 3.1%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Jeff Belle place first in the 2026 CA-52 primary?: Jeff Belle9¢
IY 743%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Carin Elam place first in the 2026 CA-14 primary?: Carin Elam9¢
IY 743%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Dena Maldonado place first in the 2026 CA-14 primary?: Dena Maldonado8¢
IY 845%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Melissa Hernandez place first in the 2026 CA-14 primary?: Melissa Hernandez8¢
IY 845%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Rakhi Israni Singh place first in the 2026 CA-14 primary?: Rakhi Israni Singh6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Wendy Huang place first in the 2026 CA-14 primary?: Wendy Huang4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Kevin Mullin place first in the 2026 CA-15 primary?: Kevin Mullin96¢
IY 3.1%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Mantosh Kumar place first in the 2026 CA-15 primary?: Mantosh Kumar9¢
IY 743%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Peter Verbica place first in the 2026 CA-19 primary?: Peter Verbica9¢
IY 743%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Sandra Van Scotter place first in the 2026 CA-20 primary?: Sandra Van Scotter10¢
IY 661%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Lorenzo Rios place first in the 2026 CA-21 primary?: Lorenzo Rios8¢
IY 845%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
55 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 25 Jun 2026 00:08:43 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXCAPRIMARY →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →