SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 California Primary Election Markets

Kalshi contracts on candidate placement in 2026 California primary elections by district. This page is the per-series collection canonical — for the term-structure / analytics view of the same prefix see yield curve analytics.

What this hub contains: every Kalshi contract whose ticker belongs to the KXCAPRIMARY series. What it does not contain: Polymarket contracts (they do not share the Kalshi series prefix taxonomy) and per-question aggregates (see /odds).

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 11 May 2026Methodology

Live contracts

270

Venue

Kalshi

Refresh

5 min

Top markets in 2026 California Primary Election Markets

Sorted by 24-hour USD volume. Each row links to the per-contract page.

ContractPrice
Will Norma Torres place first in the 2026 CA-35 primary?: Norma Torres[K]
97¢
Will Ethan Agarwal advance in the 2026 CA-17 primary?: Ethan Agarwal[K]
65¢
Will Lauren Babb Tomlinson advance in the 2026 CA-06 primary?: Lauren Babb Tomlinson[K]
11¢
Will Marena Lin advance in the 2026 CA-32 primary?: Marena Lin[K]
11¢
Will Thien Ho advance in the 2026 CA-06 primary?: Thien Ho[K]
12¢
Will Dennis Feitosa advance in the 2026 CA-30 primary?: Dennis Feitosa[K]
10¢
Will Doris Matsui place first in the 2026 CA-07 primary?: Doris Matsui[K]
83¢
Will Adam Gray place first in the 2026 CA-13 primary?: Adam Gray[K]
83¢
Will Brad Sherman place first in the 2026 CA-32 primary?: Brad Sherman[K]
92¢
Will Mai Vang advance in the 2026 CA-07 primary?: Mai Vang[K]
81¢
Will Scott Wiener place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary?: Scott Wiener[K]
84¢
Will Rakhi Israni Singh advance in the 2026 CA-14 primary?: Rakhi Israni Singh[K]
46¢
Will Ro Khanna advance in the 2026 CA-17 primary?: Ro Khanna[K]
93¢
Will Brad Sherman advance in the 2026 CA-32 primary?: Brad Sherman[K]
89¢
Will Jimmy Gomez advance in the 2026 CA-34 primary?: Jimmy Gomez[K]
93¢
Will David Pan advance in the 2026 CA-46 primary?: David Pan[K]
91¢
Will Samantha Mota advance in the 2026 CA-37 primary?: Samantha Mota[K]
4¢
Will Mike Thompson place first in the 2026 CA-04 primary?: Mike Thompson[K]
39¢
Will Melissa Hernandez advance in the 2026 CA-14 primary?: Melissa Hernandez[K]
42¢
Will Mike McGuire advance in the 2026 CA-01 primary?: Mike McGuire[K]
78¢

Showing top 20 of 270 markets in this hub.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 11 May 2026 19:53:54 GMT.

Term-structure view

Probability vs tenor curve for the same series. Distinct intent — analytics, not navigation. /yield-curves/KXCAPRIMARY →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →