John Cornyn receive between 36% and 39% of the popular vote in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff
36% - 39% is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 8¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 10 inside Will John Cornyn receive.
Price history
11¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff is 36% to 38.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
36% - 39%
Rank
#4 of 10
Leader
42% - 45% 23¢
Range
1¢-23¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-SENATETXR26JCOR-37
May 24, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$56
Family rank
#4 of 10
10 outcomes · Will John Cornyn receive
Closes
May 26, 2027
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff is 36% to 38.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 26, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-SENATETXR26JCOR-37
Event family
Will John Cornyn receive.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
42% - 45% 23¢
Current share
0%
42% - 45%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SENATETXR26JCOR-43
39% - 42%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SENATETXR26JCOR-40
45% - 48%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SENATETXR26JCOR-46
36% - 39%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SENATETXR26JCOR-37
33% - 36%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SENATETXR26JCOR-34
48% - 51%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SENATETXR26JCOR-49
51% - 54%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SENATETXR26JCOR-52
Below 33%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SENATETXR26JCOR-16
54% - 57%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SENATETXR26JCOR-55
At least 57%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-SENATETXR26JCOR-78
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.