Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 15, 2026?
This contract is priced at 22¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 24¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 2¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
4
Family volume
$138K
Best sibling
Jun 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026 52¢
Ticker
KXLEAVESTARMER-26MAY15
Market snapshot
May 15, 2026?: Before May 15, 2026 in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 15, 2026?. The displayed quote is 22¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $20K. In the Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before family, this outcome ranks #4 of 4 by current quote across 4 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.
Outcome
May 15, 2026?: Before May 15, 2026
Family rank
#4 of 4
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
22¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until May 15, 2026
24h volume
$20K
Family context
4 outcomes · Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before
Quote range
19¢-75¢
Family leader
Before Sep 1, 2026 75¢
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 14m ago
Venue identifier: KXLEAVESTARMER-26MAY15. Family volume: $138K.
Price history
22¢ current
+20¢Orderbook snapshot
24 / 26¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If Keir Starmer has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom or has actually left as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 15, 2026
Identifier
KXLEAVESTARMER-26MAY15
Event family
Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$138K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Sep 1, 2026 75¢
Current share
14%
May 15, 2026?: Before May 15, 2026
kalshi · KXLEAVESTARMER-26MAY15
Jun 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026
kalshi · KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUN01
Before Jul 1, 2026
kalshi · KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
Before Sep 1, 2026
kalshi · KXLEAVESTARMER-26SEP01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.