Khaled Mashal · Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Khaled Mashal is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 16 inside Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026.
Price history
1¢ current
−49¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Outcome
Khaled Mashal
Rank
#6 of 16
Leader
Donald Trump 9¢
Range
0¢-9¢
Family volume
$17.1M
Identifier
0x05bd10e7...6fcc
May 28, 2026, 10:58 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$12K
Family rank
#6 of 16
16 outcomes · Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Closes
Oct 10, 2026
Family volume
$17.1M
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Oct 10, 2026
Identifier
0x05bd10e7…6fcc
Event family
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$17.1M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Donald Trump 9¢
Current share
3%
Donald Trump
polymarket · 0x962e5b226a77266ab429029ee04665e8fcfeb10b91af593786ceab871d2e945f
UNRWA
polymarket · 0xb3fefe9667acca5ca31a8e330219dc67a01b374331d9bf4875357655a5508815
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
polymarket · 0x720e7267b2bd49feeaed5cf254b5d5243aa4d5e4f2ac03e4a5cb1bd9eea8a6eb
Pope Leo XIV
polymarket · 0xec2e51ebb99006172b05548fc53d6842d30c9c0cccaf4c34569f0431b94d4bfc
International Court of Justice
polymarket · 0x36081a32ac369bad207447fa2bc5d6d663fb576e935178a4a297931ec571f5d1
Greta Thunberg
polymarket · 0xdd84a0f9830eb540be5cd7a22bcaaa27aedced37c7994c480f95669a341f1c4e
Xi Jinping
polymarket · 0x7f347ed733252dc7afbd91e28104e23651b81ef6d2ef6805c7915c22e89a69b5
Ahmed al-Sharaa
polymarket · 0x0d58510591b53c9837c30c1f5a202232da376460634aee9da71a6bfeb15350bb
Charlie Kirk
polymarket · 0xda9e24f8b6b8f71f02a79fe9d27348f6cbf2ff670cbef4afc58ae52fb4c8b1cb
Mohammed bin Salman
polymarket · 0x8f77f96697dea0909edb2946e0eb866c08e9c2280964e70b1e5f25fcc0a747d0
Elon Musk
polymarket · 0x97115010af13666600dc8776dce48290f5c4c23d387a86a97f6b4b38561dd5af
Vladimir Putin
polymarket · 0x1e7a7b53f33712909925d133f51a3454a97f8d39bb2651761c4ee44d580ae2df
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
polymarket · 0x32146c285b1d126556a309e3eae227f614076c93c0b080bae4ed6aaf6b1e9e5f
Julian Assange
polymarket · 0x0cfec4bdb5b2060bba705259a76c489a9b0cc36da5edad65ecd796f461a89af5
Khaled Mashal
polymarket · 0x05bd10e73dc1cef3f5305cae9cb015e62476c4f44a1744713611ca774cb96fcc
Benjamin Netanyahu
polymarket · 0x73ea54d2bbd4a4bb22cc78f1ef9b8373c76e57fe2a4bf09784413002885f69f7
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
low
Event type
cultural
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.