Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

The 3-cent price reflects an extremely low 3% probability for Qatar's Emir to win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, yet the Yes position offers an extraordinary 6,708% implied yield—a massive asymmetry typical of long-shot bets with minimal liquidity ($44.5M open interest but only $3.4K daily volume). With 176 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears fairly priced for such a remote outcome, though the extreme yield and 32 Cliff Risk Index suggest caution around late-stage volatility if geopolitical developments suddenly elevate his profile.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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