Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation above 1051.5 feet in May 2026
Above 1051.5 Ft is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 10 inside Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 10.
Price history
4¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation at Hoover Dam for May 2026 is strictly greater than 1051.5 feet, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 1051.5 Ft
Rank
#8 of 10
Leader
Above 1047.5 Ft 99¢
Range
1¢-99¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXMEAD-26MAY-A1051P5
May 28, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$968
Family rank
#8 of 10
10 outcomes · Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 10
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation at Hoover Dam for May 2026 is strictly greater than 1051.5 feet, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
Identifier
KXMEAD-26MAY-A1051P5
Event family
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 10.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Above 1047.5 Ft 99¢
Current share
0%
Above 1047.5 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26MAY-A1047P5
Above 1048 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26MAY-A1048
Above 1048.5 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26MAY-A1048P5
Above 1049.5 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26MAY-A1049P5
Above 1049 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26MAY-A1049
Above 1050 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26MAY-A1050
Above 1050.5 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26MAY-A1050P5
Above 1051.5 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26MAY-A1051P5
Above 1051 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26MAY-A1051
Above 1052 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26MAY-A1052
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.