Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market prices ICE ERO funding legislation at 68¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($181 open interest, $0 in 24-hour volume), making this price potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread.
Analysis
The market prices ICE ERO funding legislation at 68¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($181 open interest, $0 in 24-hour volume), making this price potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread. The No side's 328% implied yield is notably inflated due to low liquidity and the long 260-day timeframe, suggesting the market may be mispricing tail risk rather than reflecting genuine probability. Recent upward price movement from 67¢ to 70¢ combined with zero recent trading activity indicates this contract lacks sufficient depth to serve as a reliable probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) has become law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXICEERO-26MAR-JAN01 yes 100