Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Jan 1, 2027

30-day trend

Analysis

This prediction reflects a 95% probability that Congress will pass legislation funding ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations before January 1, 2027. ICE's ERO typically receives appropriations through broader Homeland Security funding bills or continuing resolutions that pass routinely each fiscal year. The high probability reflects the historical pattern of bipartisan support for ICE funding through appropriations processes, regardless of political disagreements over immigration policy. Key uncertainty factors include whether funding delays occur due to broader budget negotiations, whether a government shutdown happens before year-end, or whether legislative disputes over immigration enforcement prioritize alternative funding mechanisms. The main resolution catalyst is the appropriations cycle deadlines, particularly any September 2026 fiscal year-end negotiations when Congress must renew funding or pass continuing resolutions.

• ›ICE ERO funding has passed with bipartisan support in appropriations bills for decades, suggesting structural likelihood of passage
• ›The current fiscal year timeline creates pressure for appropriations passage by September 30, 2026, well before the January 1, 2027 deadline
• ›Any government shutdown or continuing resolution impasse could delay passage but would not necessarily prevent eventual funding before year-end
• ›The 54¢ price on a June 1, 2026 resolution deadline suggests market expects passage before mid-year, indicating near-term legislative action
• ›Historical pattern shows ERO funding rarely becomes a primary legislative dispute point compared to broader immigration policy debates

What moved the line

• Jun 1Before Jul 1, 2026↑9pp69→78¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 4Before Jul 1, 2026↑9pp82→91¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 2Before Jan 1, 2027↑3pp88→91¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds