Will Leon Goretzka leave Bayern before Sep 15, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 80% probability that Will Leon Goretzka leave Bayern before Sep 15, 2026?. This contract trades at 80¢ on Kalshi, closing September 15, 2026. The market is pricing in an 83% probability of Goretzka's departure, but the extreme 966% implied yield on the "No" side combined with zero 24-hour volume suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 83% probability of Goretzka's departure, but the extreme 966% implied yield on the "No" side combined with zero 24-hour volume suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. The 10¢ spread and modest $369 open interest indicate this is a thin market where the high Yes price may reflect limited opposing bets rather than strong fundamental reasoning. With 151 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 4, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this price as a true probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If Leon Goretzka transfers out of Bayern before Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-LGOR yes 100