SimpleFunctions

Lorenzo Sonego to win the Sonego vs Herbert

Lorenzo Sonego is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 99¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXATPMATCH-26MAY25SONHER.

Price history

99¢ current

+48¢
50¢75¢100¢
May 22, 2026May 24, 2026

Contract brief

If Lorenzo Sonego wins the Sonego vs Herbert professional tennis match in the 2026 French Open Men Singles Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Lorenzo Sonego

Rank

#1 of 2

Leader

Lorenzo Sonego 71¢

Range

28¢-71¢

Family volume

$2.8M

Identifier

KXATPMATCH-26MAY25SONHER-SON

May 24, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 14m ago

Implied probability

99¢
Latest venue quote
May 24, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 14m ago

Bid

99¢

Ask

100¢

Spread

24h volume

$2.1M

Family rank

#1 of 2

2 outcomes · KXATPMATCH-26MAY25SONHER

Closes

Jun 8, 2026

Family volume

$2.8M

Orderbook snapshot

99 / 100¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
99¢101K
97¢1
96¢85
94¢85
92¢85
AskSize

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Lorenzo Sonego wins the Sonego vs Herbert professional tennis match in the 2026 French Open Men Singles Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 8, 2026

Identifier

KXATPMATCH-26MAY25SONHER-SON

SF Signal
SF Index
12182.07
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXATPMATCH-26MAY25SONHER.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$2.8M

Outcomes

2

Highest price

Lorenzo Sonego 71¢

Current share

57%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

517.3%

IY (No)

12330.0%

Adj IY

12182%

CRI

5

RV

1427%

VR

4.22

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

517.3%
12330.0%
Adj IY
12182%
5
RV
1427%
VR
4.22
IAR
0.9/h
LAS
0.01

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.