ATP Tennis Matches
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$780K
4 contracts
Closes
Jun 15, 2026
10 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jakub Mensik win the Mensik vs Zverev: Semifinal match
Will Jakub Mensik win the Mensik vs Zverev: Semifinal match?: Jakub Mensik
KXATPMATCH-26JUN05MENZVE-MEN
Cluster 2
Will Alexander Zverev win the Mensik vs Zverev: Semifinal match
Will Alexander Zverev win the Mensik vs Zverev: Semifinal match?: Alexander Zverev
KXATPMATCH-26JUN05MENZVE-ZVE
Cluster 3
Will Flavio Cobolli win the Arnaldi vs Cobolli: Semifinal match
Will Flavio Cobolli win the Arnaldi vs Cobolli: Semifinal match?: Flavio Cobolli
KXATPMATCH-26JUN05ARNCOB-COB
Cluster 4
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the Arnaldi vs Cobolli: Semifinal match
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the Arnaldi vs Cobolli: Semifinal match?: Matteo Arnaldi
KXATPMATCH-26JUN05ARNCOB-ARN
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that a player other than Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner will win at least one ATP Grand Slam title in 2026. Currently priced at 57%, it suggests the market views these two as favorites to dominate the four major tournaments but still expects meaningful competition from the rest of the field. The level is driven by Alcaraz and Sinner's recent dominance—Alcaraz won multiple majors in 2024 and Sinner won the Australian Open in 2025—against historical precedent where Grand Slams are distributed more broadly. The probability will shift based on tournament outcomes beginning with the French Open in May 2026, the first major of the year. Performance by Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Jannik Sinner's form, injuries, and seeding will all influence which other players have realistic paths to a major title.
- ›Alcaraz and Sinner have won four of the last five Grand Slam tournaments combined (2024-2025), establishing them as the current favorites
- ›The French Open begins May 2026, the first major tournament that will test whether challengers can break through or whether one of the two favorites wins again
- ›Historical Grand Slam distribution shows that across 2015-2019, five different men won the four major tournaments each year, suggesting other winners remain possible
- ›Djokovic's age (38-39 in 2026) and recent injury history may affect his competitiveness versus mid-career alternatives like Medvedev, Tsitsipas, or emerging players
- ›Contract volume of $870 over 24 hours is relatively modest, indicating limited market conviction and potential for significant probability shifts based on new information
Recently closed in tennis
- WTA Tennis MatchesSemifinal match?: Elina Svitolinalast 50% · 3d
- NHL Vezina Trophy Winnerlast 4% · 0d
- Will Team Liquid win the Team Liquid vs. Natus Vincere Valorant matchlast 50% · 1d
- Will Jaume Munar win set 1 in the Jaume Munar vs Alexander Shevchenko matchlast 33% · 1d
- Will MIR win map 2 in the MIR vs. Enterprise Esports matchlast 48% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in tennis.
In tennis
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.