Mandy Ghusar · CA-04 Primary Winners
Mandy Ghusar is priced at 0¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 0¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 8 inside CA-04 Primary Winners.
Price history
0¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Outcome
Mandy Ghusar
Rank
#8 of 8
Leader
Mike Thompson 94¢
Range
0¢-94¢
Family volume
$32K
Identifier
0x08aad24a...146b
May 29, 2026, 11:18 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
0¢
Spread
0¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#8 of 8
8 outcomes · CA-04 Primary Winners
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Family volume
$32K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 0¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Identifier
0x08aad24a…146b
Event family
CA-04 Primary Winners.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$32K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Mike Thompson 94¢
Current share
8%
Mike Thompson
polymarket · 0x1972da460e8d3b6654e96ab3374003367af411c97244e25f981d1f67547c56e7
Eric Jones
polymarket · 0x37e9fa09e605b87c7854ea2ae50c1f63b90f686f969a56cda41d519aa4f2d099
John Wesley Tyler
polymarket · 0x4e611acac5b5a79e40c5424ba2c40bed6cb4365f48536005ee58742ecf08f0b6
Heath Fulkerson
polymarket · 0xed129861c6e573b1b5bbe1817b16bf5ea047630ef14bdb7ac6994252281cfe38
Laurie MacKenzie
polymarket · 0xa3547b73ba1e2d690d1073d3d215175534d557d542f20a3ff18e6cb9cdc5d9aa
Sharon Brown
polymarket · 0x6655c73c7951254b4be7c32fdfde2a7a16f1f0f7f340f7bc1023ac37b3613f95
Trevor Merrell
polymarket · 0x05371808e5c89d903911b9b3709c562e39e8cb0c842892278ef6e318225d0577
Mandy Ghusar
polymarket · 0x08aad24a81ab0bea6a608d5a0f3900386c02555562a09cd39a78072b2c41146b
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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