What is the current probability for "Will John Wesley Tyler advance from the CA-04 primary election?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 9¢ (9% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 2, 2026. 38 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will John Wesley Tyler advance from the CA-04 primary election?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 9673.8% and 94.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will John Wesley Tyler advance from the CA-04 primary election?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will John Wesley Tyler advance from the CA-04 primary election?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will John Wesley Tyler advance from the CA-04 primary election?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026.

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9¢

Bid/Ask 8/10¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $20.5·OI $23,169.51·Closes Jun 2, 2026·38d remaining

0x4e611acac5b5a79e40c5424ba2c40bed6cb4365f48536005ee58742ecf08f0b6

7-day price761 snapshots · 5 regime

66¢9¢ current

Apr 89¢Apr 23

Resolution rules

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 9673.8%

IY (No) 94.6%

Adj IY 9674%

CRI 10

RV 7711%

VR 11.30

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	9673.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	94.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	9674%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	7711%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	11.30	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 8:34:56 PM

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 8:23:44 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x4e611acac5b5a79e40c5424ba2c40bed6cb4365f48536005ee58742ecf08f0b6 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

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