Will Mateusz Rebecki win the Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki UFC fight by Submission?
This contract is priced at 5¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 5¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
7
Family volume
$1K
Best sibling
Will Grant Dawson win the Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? : Grant Dawson by KO/TKO/DQ 6¢
Ticker
KXUFCMOV-26MAY09DAWREB-REBSUB
Market snapshot
Will Mateusz Rebecki win the Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki UFC fight by Submission? : Mateusz Rebecki by Submission in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Mateusz Rebecki win the Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki UFC fight by Submission? . The displayed quote is 5¢ from the visible bid/ask midpoint because the last venue price is zero. In the KXUFCMOV-26MAY09DAWREB family, this outcome ranks #6 of 7 by current quote across 7 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 2:35 AM UTC.
Outcome
Will Mateusz Rebecki win the Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki UFC fight by Submission? : Mateusz Rebecki by Submission
Family rank
#6 of 7
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
5¢
Quote source
Bid/ask midpoint
Timing
Listed until May 23, 2026
Reported volume
—
Family context
7 outcomes · KXUFCMOV-26MAY09DAWREB
Quote range
1¢-39¢
Family leader
Will Grant Dawson win the Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki UFC fight by Decision? : Grant Dawson by Decision 39¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 2:35 AM UTC · 0m ago
Venue identifier: KXUFCMOV-26MAY09DAWREB-REBSUB. Family volume: $1K.
Price history
5¢ current
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 7¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If Mateusz Rebecki wins by Submission during the Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki UFC fight originally scheduled for May 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 23, 2026
Identifier
KXUFCMOV-26MAY09DAWREB-REBSUB
Event family
KXUFCMOV-26MAY09DAWREB.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Will Grant Dawson win the Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki UFC fight by Decision? : Grant Dawson by Decision 39¢
Current share
0%
Will Mateusz Rebecki win the Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki UFC fight by Submission? : Mateusz Rebecki by Submission
kalshi · KXUFCMOV-26MAY09DAWREB-REBSUB
Will Grant Dawson win the Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? : Grant Dawson by KO/TKO/DQ
kalshi · KXUFCMOV-26MAY09DAWREB-DAWKOTKODQ
Will Mateusz Rebecki win the Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? : Mateusz Rebecki by KO/TKO/DQ
kalshi · KXUFCMOV-26MAY09DAWREB-REBKOTKODQ
Will Grant Dawson win the Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki UFC fight by Submission? : Grant Dawson by Submission
kalshi · KXUFCMOV-26MAY09DAWREB-DAWSUB
Will Grant Dawson win the Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki UFC fight by Decision? : Grant Dawson by Decision
kalshi · KXUFCMOV-26MAY09DAWREB-DAWDEC
Will the fight between Grant Dawson and Mateusz Rebecki end in a draw? : Draw
kalshi · KXUFCMOV-26MAY09DAWREB-DRAWDRAW
Will Mateusz Rebecki win the Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki UFC fight by Decision? : Mateusz Rebecki by Decision
kalshi · KXUFCMOV-26MAY09DAWREB-REBDEC
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 5% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.