SimpleFunctions

Michael Jackson · KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26JUL01

Michael Jackson is priced at 91¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 75¢ bid, 90¢ ask, 15¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26JUL01.

Price history

91¢ current

+13¢
70¢80¢90¢
May 27, 2026May 28, 2026

Contract brief

If Michael Jackson is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Michael Jackson

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

Michael Jackson 75¢

Range

1¢-75¢

Family volume

$443

Identifier

KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26JUL01-MIC

May 28, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 3m ago

Implied probability

91¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 3m ago

Bid

75¢

Ask

90¢

Spread

15¢

24h volume

$110

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26JUL01

Closes

Jul 1, 2026

Family volume

$443

Orderbook snapshot

75 / 90¢

Kalshi
15¢ spread
BidSize
75¢1
74¢229
60¢1
7¢33
6¢52
AskSize
90¢15
91¢55
92¢250
93¢100
97¢162

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Michael Jackson is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 1, 2026

Identifier

KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26JUL01-MIC

SF Signal
SF Index
1623.52
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

360.8%

IY (No)

3247.0%

Adj IY

1624%

CRI

3

Overround

5.7%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

360.8%
3247.0%
Adj IY
1624%
3
Overround
5.7%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.