SimpleFunctions
5 contractsKalshirefreshed 8 min ago

Will Baby Keem be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in April 2026

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 5 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

19%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

19%

5 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$3K

5 contracts

Top contract

46¢

$2K · Kalshi

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 23% (5 days, 5 points)Aggregate: 23% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 5 contracts · 5d

Bracket families

5 clusters across 5 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Taylor Swift be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in May 2026

1 contract$2K

Cluster 2

Will Michael Jackson be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in May 2026

1 contract$959

Cluster 3

Will Madonna be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in May 2026

1 contract$101

Cluster 4

Will BTS be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in May 2026

1 contract$67

Cluster 5

Will Dominic Fike be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in May 2026

1 contract$16

What moved the line

  • May 1BTS38pp2967¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2Dominic Fike33pp407¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3BTS29pp3910¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2BTS28pp6739¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 30Dominic Fike28pp2856¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.