Will Baby Keem be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in April 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
5 contracts
Top contract
46¢
$2K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Taylor Swift be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in May 2026
Cluster 2
Will Michael Jackson be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in May 2026
Cluster 3
Will Madonna be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in May 2026
Cluster 4
Will BTS be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in May 2026
Will BTS be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in May 2026?: BTS
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26JUN01-BTS
Cluster 5
Will Dominic Fike be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in May 2026
What moved the line
- May 1BTS↑38pp29→67¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Dominic Fike↓33pp40→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 3BTS↓29pp39→10¢ · Kalshi
- May 2BTS↓28pp67→39¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Dominic Fike↑28pp28→56¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.