Will Mike Maignan leave AC Milan before Sep 15, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Mike Maignan leave AC Milan before Sep 15, 2026?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing September 15, 2026. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the "Yes" side offering a striking 1267% annualized return against just 46% for "No," suggesting severe underpricing of departure risk or minimal trader interest.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the "Yes" side offering a striking 1267% annualized return against just 46% for "No," suggesting severe underpricing of departure risk or minimal trader interest. The 7-day price collapse from 16¢ to 25¢ combined with zero 24-hour volume and only $38 open interest indicates this contract lacks meaningful liquidity and may not reflect genuine market consensus. With 151 days to expiry and a wide 10¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced prediction.
Resolution rules
If Mike Maignan transfers out of AC Milan before Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-MMAG yes 100