Nationalist Party · KXMALTAPARLI-26MAY30
Nationalist Party is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside KXMALTAPARLI-26MAY30.
Price history
5¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If the Nationalist Party wins the 2026 Malta House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Nationalist Party
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Labour Party 94¢
Range
5¢-94¢
Family volume
$673
Identifier
KXMALTAPARLI-26MAY30-NAT
May 27, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$162
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · KXMALTAPARLI-26MAY30
Closes
May 30, 2027
Family volume
$673
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Nationalist Party wins the 2026 Malta House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 30, 2027
Identifier
KXMALTAPARLI-26MAY30-NAT
Event family
KXMALTAPARLI-26MAY30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$673
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Labour Party 94¢
Current share
24%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.