Nithya Raman receive between 15% and 20% of the popular vote in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election
15% - 20% is priced at 22¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 25¢ bid, 31¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 9 inside Will Nithya Raman receive.
Price history
22¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Nithya Raman in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election is 15% to 19.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
15% - 20%
Rank
#1 of 9
Leader
15% - 20% 25¢
Range
1¢-25¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-17
May 27, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
25¢
Ask
31¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$137
Family rank
#1 of 9
9 outcomes · Will Nithya Raman receive
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
25 / 31¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Nithya Raman in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election is 15% to 19.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-17
Event family
Will Nithya Raman receive.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
15% - 20% 25¢
Current share
10%
15% - 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-17
20% - 25%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-22
25% - 30%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-27
10% - 15%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-12
30% - 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-32
At least 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-70
5% - 10%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-7
Below 5%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-2
35% - 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-37
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 22% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.