Nithya Raman receive between 30% and 35% of the popular vote in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election
30% - 35% is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 9 inside Will Nithya Raman receive.
Price history
10¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Nithya Raman in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election is 30% to 34.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
30% - 35%
Rank
#6 of 9
Leader
20% - 25% 22¢
Range
1¢-22¢
Family volume
$61
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-32
May 25, 2026, 9:19 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$11
Family rank
#6 of 9
9 outcomes · Will Nithya Raman receive
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
Family volume
$61
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 10¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Nithya Raman in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election is 30% to 34.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-32
Event family
Will Nithya Raman receive.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$61
Outcomes
9
Highest price
20% - 25% 22¢
Current share
18%
20% - 25%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-22
15% - 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-17
25% - 30%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-27
10% - 15%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-12
5% - 10%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-7
30% - 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-32
At least 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-70
Below 5%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-2
35% - 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26NRAMNRAM-37
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 10% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.