What is the current probability for "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 7¢ (7% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 241 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2008.9% and 11.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PolymarketDec 31, 2026241 days left

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 7¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 2¢ spread.

Open on Polymarket JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

7¢

$61K volume

$17K liquidity

100% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$61K

Best sibling

—

Ticker

0x84dc47b1…7f79

Price history

7¢ current

−2¢

Apr 10, 2026May 1, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

6 / 8¢

Polymarket

2¢ spread

BidSize

6¢658

6¢20K

6¢2.5K

6¢160

6¢2.3K

6¢500

6¢198

4¢152

AskSize

8¢85

8¢432

8¢320

8¢120

8¢10

8¢300

8¢293

8¢73

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

0x84dc47b1…7f79

Event family

This market.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$61K

Outcomes

Highest price