What will iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in April 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14
5 contracts
Closes
Jun 4, 2029
1074 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 21% of their title tokens — “What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary” vs “What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary?: South Carolina
KXFIRSTPRIMARYD-28-SC
Cluster 2
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: South Carolina
KXREDISTRICTING-26-SC
Cluster 3
Will Lee Jae Myung leave President of South Korea before Jan 1, 2027
Will Lee Jae Myung leave President of South Korea before Jan 1, 2027?: Lee Jae Myung
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-LJMKOR
Cluster 4
Who will recognize Palestine
Who will recognize Palestine?: South Korea
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-SK
Cluster 5
Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term
Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term?: Ending Jun 4, 2029
KXFULLTERMSKPRES-29
Analysis
This contract asks whether the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) will close below $118 at any point in April 2026. The 23% probability reflects relatively low odds of such a decline from recent trading levels. South Korea's equity market is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, including interest rate expectations, corporate earnings growth, and geopolitical tensions on the peninsula. The contract's current valuation suggests traders expect the Korean won and associated equities to remain relatively stable through April 2026. Key drivers of movement include domestic monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Korea, quarterly earnings reports from major holdings like Samsung and SK Hynix, and any shifts in U.S.-Korea trade relations or North Korean developments. The most concrete resolution point occurs at the end of April 2026, when the contract settles based on the ETF's intraday low during that month.
- ›EWY's historical volatility relative to its current price level, which determines the statistical likelihood of reaching $118
- ›Bank of Korea interest rate decisions and inflation data between now and April 2026, which directly influence Korean asset valuations
- ›Earnings performance and forward guidance from EWY's largest weighted holdings during Q1 2026
- ›Currency movements of the Korean won versus the U.S. dollar, since the ETF's price reflects both equity values and exchange rate fluctuations
- ›Geopolitical events or policy announcements affecting U.S.-Korea relations, semiconductor trade, or North Korean developments
What moved the line
- Jun 22Ending Jun 4, 2029↑6pp76→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Ending Jun 4, 2029↓5pp82→77¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 1d
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 2d
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 6d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 7d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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