What will iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in April 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 14 contracts. Kalshi at 37%, Polymarket at 23% — a 14pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
6 contracts
Polymarket
23%
8 contracts
Cross-venue gap
14pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$61K
14 contracts
Top contract
30¢
$29K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 37¢ · Polymarket 23¢ · 14pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (23¢, 8 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (37¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
10 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “Which countries”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 200,000
0xac32e7…68cd
Cluster 2
Which countries
Cluster 3
What will be the series outcome in the Toronto vs Cleveland 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs
Cluster 4
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: South Carolina
KXREDISTRICTING-26-SC
Cluster 5
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?
0x2fd0c0…94e5
Cluster 6
Will Lee Jae Myung leave President of South Korea before Jan 1, 2027
Will Lee Jae Myung leave President of South Korea before Jan 1, 2027?: Lee Jae Myung
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-LJMKOR
Cluster 7
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary?: South Carolina
KXFIRSTPRIMARYD-28-SC
Cluster 8
Who will recognize Palestine
Who will recognize Palestine?: South Korea
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-SK
Cluster 9
Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term
Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term?: Ending Jun 4, 2029
KXFULLTERMSKPRES-29
Cluster 10
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
0x84dc47…7f79
What moved the line
- May 2South Carolina↑24pp38→62¢ · Kalshi
- May 1South Carolina↑14pp24→38¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?↓12pp21→9¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?↓12pp19→7¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?↑11pp10→21¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.