What is the current probability for "Will Oklahoma qualify for the College Baseball World Series?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 50¢ (50% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 26, 2026. 62 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Oklahoma qualify for the College Baseball World Series?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 14066.6% and 24.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Oklahoma qualify for the College Baseball World Series?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Oklahoma qualify for the College Baseball World Series?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will Oklahoma qualify for the College Baseball World Series?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing June 26, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 17,537% implied yield on the Yes side.

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50¢mid

Bid/Ask 4/95¢·Spread 91¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Jun 26, 2026·62d remaining

KXNCAABBPLAYOFFS-26-OKLA

7-day price16 snapshots · 3 regime

6¢4¢ current

Apr 183¢Apr 25

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 17,537% implied yield on the Yes side. The 93¢ spread is unusually wide for a binary contract, indicating virtually no market participants are willing to trade at either extreme. With 67 days until expiration and Oklahoma historically a competitive baseball program, the zero price likely reflects a data artifact or abandoned market rather than genuine belief in zero qualification probability, making this unsuitable for serious trading.

Resolution rules

If Oklahoma qualifies for the College Baseball World Series in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 14066.6%

IY (No) 24.4%

Adj IY 14067%

CRI 24

RV 3087%

VR 2.89

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	14066.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	24.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	14067%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3087%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.89	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	4.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

91¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 7:30:30 AM

Indicators computed 4/25/2026, 7:23:44 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNCAABBPLAYOFFS-26-OKLA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →