Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $146 end of April?

This illiquid market with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 18¢ spread shows extreme yield metrics (4377% implied on the Yes side) that reflect the thin $2.1K open interest rather than genuine edge. With only 10 days to expiry and PLTR needing to rally from current levels to above $146, the 45¢ price has declined 8% over seven days, suggesting weakening conviction despite the neutral regime and elevated realized volatility of 428%. The Cliff Risk Index of 1 indicates binary resolution risk is maximal given the proximity to expiry, making this a speculative position with minimal liquidity for execution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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