Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $156 end of April?

The 30¢ price implies PLTR needs to rally roughly 40% from current levels to close above $156 by April 30, 2026, yet the extraordinarily high implied yield of 7,526% on the "Yes" side suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—corroborated by the thin $408.69 open interest and 17¢ spread representing 57% of the current price. With only 11 days to expiration, 861% realized volatility, and just $20.26 in 24-hour volume, this market appears to be a low-liquidity outlier where the extreme yield metrics are likely artifacts of minimal trading activity rather than genuine arbitrage opportunities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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