Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $160 end of April?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $4,414.53 open interest, making the 22¢ price potentially unreliable despite the modest 31¢ spread. The astronomical 11,456% implied yield on the "Yes" side signals either severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in near-zero probability for PLTR to reach $160 by April 30, 2026—a roughly 3.5x move from current levels in just 11 days. With a realized volatility of 694% and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this appears to be a tail-risk bet with minimal market participation rather than a genuine probability assessment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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