Prosperous Armenia to win Armenia Parliamentary Election
Prosperous Armenia is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 10 inside Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner.
Price history
3¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election. If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Outcome
Prosperous Armenia
Rank
#3 of 10
Leader
Civil Contract 88¢
Range
0¢-88¢
Family volume
$356K
Identifier
0xc1e6e7dd...74b4
May 29, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#3 of 10
10 outcomes · Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner
Closes
Jun 7, 2026
Family volume
$356K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 5¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election. If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 7, 2026
Identifier
0xc1e6e7dd…74b4
Event family
Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$356K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Civil Contract 88¢
Current share
8%
Civil Contract
polymarket · 0xc18b1b9c7ffca0f781bce2fe53538bb5b752fd41ec4757c9047e1a097ccfff1c
Strong Armenia
polymarket · 0x5847ca055bf898415cfa3c18720d17c3174f04297d0772be8516e59706565d60
Prosperous Armenia
polymarket · 0xc1e6e7ddb5bc4119391c57f62bc3f2ed1fdf1d2b02cbba15df7782a988fe74b4
Armenia Alliance
polymarket · 0xca83131929f53bb417dfbd8e67aa8bc0c38d40303dbdfa97601b1cb7bd7232b0
Armenian National Congress
polymarket · 0x08897a930d5dfd30e447cc2e85c3fc97651fea9255c4265cb4449cd01f208a17
Bright Armenia
polymarket · 0xf5b5255c6e5e96ac3cb2ed9e1a54754ed9f1d7c874a609e2b534b17378a447b7
Orinats Yerkir
polymarket · 0x6f3c86b70dcc31d5c5f148b9638d3040d6725d9421a4d59670c8d53120af28de
Heritage
polymarket · 0x39d9071db58e76a13f891dff84b74356a10c245047733566a842520cd26c6b25
Hanrapetutyun Party
polymarket · 0x11aca562687d598f032031849898ece8e22e70dce58d1d45f93d333e14ce0a8f
I Have Honor Alliance
polymarket · 0x28a5449552f62f685ae27710d2e2b898b1c3d43ba4e1ffb3f1ecb8bad0536225
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.