Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner
Leader sits at 96% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Civil Contract
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Strong Armenia
Spread
92pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$59K
liquid
Closes
Jun 7, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner
Analysis
This 95% probability indicates that Civil Contract, the incumbent Armenian ruling party, is assessed as overwhelmingly likely to win the most seats in Armenia's next parliamentary election. The high confidence reflects Civil Contract's strong recent performance and institutional advantages as the governing party. The probability could shift if polling data emerges showing unexpected gains by opposition parties, or if voter sentiment shifts due to economic conditions or geopolitical developments. The main resolution catalyst is the actual parliamentary election date; Armenia's electoral calendar typically occurs in spring or early summer, though the exact date should be confirmed in official Armenian government announcements. Market movements would likely accelerate as election day approaches and new polling data becomes available.
- ›Civil Contract won the 2023 parliamentary election with roughly 54% of votes, establishing a strong baseline for sustained support
- ›The 4% runner-up probability suggests the market perceives one clear alternative with meaningful but distant chances, indicating a fragmented opposition
- ›Only $365 in 24-hour volume on this contract indicates relatively thin liquidity, so the 95% price may not reflect deep collective conviction
- ›Armenian political outcomes can be sensitive to external shocks (regional tensions, economic crises), which could rapidly reprice this market
- ›The election date and campaign dynamics (candidate announcements, coalition formations, polling) will be key empirical touchstones before resolution
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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