What is the current probability for "Will PSG win the Champions League Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 26¢ (26% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 29, 2028. 769 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will PSG win the Champions League Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 142.4% and 15.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will PSG win the Champions League Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will PSG win the Champions League Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will PSG win the Champions League Winner?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing May 29, 2028. PSG's Champions League odds have compressed sharply from 15¢ to 25¢ over seven days, yet the 26¢ price still offers an asymmetric 141.5% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 15.7% on the No side, suggesting potential undervaluation despite recent buying pressure.

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26¢

Bid/Ask 25/26¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $11,229.62·OI $670,445.87·Closes May 29, 2028·769d remaining

KXUCL-26-PSG

7-day price94 snapshots · 126 regime

29¢25¢ current

Apr 815¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

PSG's Champions League odds have compressed sharply from 15¢ to 25¢ over seven days, yet the 26¢ price still offers an asymmetric 141.5% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 15.7% on the No side, suggesting potential undervaluation despite recent buying pressure. The extreme 517% realized volatility and 4.30 vol ratio indicate this market experiences significant price swings, though the tight 1¢ spread and $654k open interest provide reasonable liquidity for a contract expiring in 774 days. The modest 1.1 info arrivals per hour and neutral regime suggest the recent rally may reflect genuine belief shifts rather than breaking news, making this a speculative positioning rather than a market responding to concrete developments.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 25¢(Δ +1¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.72IY 2799.2%Close-time delta 17510h

Resolution rules

If the PSG win the Champions League Winner, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 142.4%

IY (No) 15.8%

Adj IY 137%

CRI 3

RV 415%

VR 3.41

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	142.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	15.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	137%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	415%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.41	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:23:15 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUCL-26-PSG yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →