UEFA Champions League
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$967K
2 contracts
Closes
May 29, 2028
730 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will PSG win the Champions League Winner
Will PSG win the Champions League Winner?: PSG
KXUCL-26-PSG
Cluster 2
Will Arsenal win the Champions League Winner
Will Arsenal win the Champions League Winner?: Arsenal
KXUCL-26-ARS
Analysis
The 37% probability reflects expectations that the UEFA Champions League winner will be one of the top-tier European clubs currently competing in the 2025-26 season. The aggregate probability is driven by distributed betting across multiple strong contenders: Bayern Munich at 37¢, Arsenal and PSG each at 27¢, and Atlético Madrid at 12¢ for outright winner, with Atlético also favored at 37¢ to reach the final. The market's aggregated view suggests meaningful uncertainty among several candidates rather than a dominant favorite. The probability could shift significantly based on knockout-stage matchups (Round of 16 onwards), injury developments to key players, or surprise performances by mid-tier clubs. Resolution occurs in late May 2026 when the final is played, at which point the actual winner eliminates all other possibilities. Current trading volume is concentrated on outright winner contracts, indicating active reassessment of contenders' prospects as the tournament progresses.
- ›Bayern Munich, Arsenal, and PSG each command 27-37¢ individually, suggesting no single team dominates market expectations and shifts between them could materially move the aggregate probability
- ›Atlético Madrid is valued significantly lower (12¢ for winner but 37¢ to reach final), indicating market uncertainty about their ability to convert final appearances into titles
- ›The 3 percentage-point gap between Polymarket (37%) and Kalshi (34%) reflects differences in contract count and weighting, with Polymarket offering 19 contracts versus Kalshi's 1, suggesting higher liquidity on Polymarket may better reflect marginal pricing
- ›Knockout-stage draw and matchups (determined in advance) directly determine which teams face each other, with favorable draws potentially shifting individual team probabilities substantially
- ›Twenty-four hour trading volumes exceed $30,000 on Bayern and $15,000+ on other top candidates, indicating active repricing and suggesting the market is processing new information regularly
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In football
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.