Jake Ellzey · KXHOUSERACE-TX06-26
Jake Ellzey is priced at 93¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 79¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 18¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXHOUSERACE-TX06-26.
Price history
93¢ current
Contract brief
If the House member sworn in for TX-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Jake Ellzey
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Jake Ellzey 79¢
Range
3¢-79¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXHOUSERACE-TX06-26-R
May 29, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
79¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
18¢
Reported volume
$223
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · KXHOUSERACE-TX06-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
79 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the House member sworn in for TX-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXHOUSERACE-TX06-26-R
Event family
KXHOUSERACE-TX06-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Jake Ellzey 79¢
Current share
—
Jake Ellzey
kalshi · KXHOUSERACE-TX06-26-R
Danny Minton
kalshi · KXHOUSERACE-TX06-26-D
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.