SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets — 507 contracts, SF signal on every row.

507 live Kalshi contracts (604 audited). Median implied probability sits at 90%. 5 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXHOUSERACE-WA05-26-R +27c). 12 contracts carry a live SF thesis. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXHOUSERACE.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXHOUSERACE
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXHOUSERACE
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXHOUSERACE",
    "label": "2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 507,
    "volume24hSum": 8704.54,
    "hasThesisCount": 12
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 23 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$8.7K-19%
min $4.5Kmax $36.5K
Breadth100%+85.7pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 19:45 UTC
Aug 16past 7d · UTCAug 23 · 16:23

Live contracts

507

Median IY

90¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$8.7K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

12

Top mover

+27¢

KXHOUSERACE-WA05-26-R

2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets — liquidity topography (top 47 of 507 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 4.4 → 2701.7%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d365d2701.71353.04.4

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets

Showing top 20 of 507

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Republican win the House race for WA-05?: Michael Baumgartner76¢
IY 26%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 623%Resid —$2.3K
Will Democratic win the House race for WA-05?: Democratic party20¢
IY 334%Cliff 4Edge —RVol 437%Resid —$1.1K
Will Republican win the House race for FL-09?: Dan Green70¢
IY 36%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 127%Resid —$500
Will Democratic win the House race for GA-12?: Ceretta Smith10¢
IY 752%Cliff 9Edge —RVol 905%Resid —$489
Will Republican win the House race for OH-07?: Max Miller17¢
IY 408%Cliff 5Edge —RVol 540%Resid —$460
Will Republican win the House race for HI-02?: Brenton Awa4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$420
Will Republican win the House race for FL-15?: Laurel Lee88¢
IY 11%Cliff 7Edge —RVol 74%Resid —$363
Will Republican win the House race for SC-02?: Joe Wilson87¢
IY 12%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$361
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-22?: Pia Dandiya40¢
IY 125%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 185%Resid —$339
Will Republican win the House race for OH-10?: Mike Turner85¢
IY 15%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$256
Will Republican win the House race for IL-12?: Mike Bost92¢
IY 7.3%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$200
Will Democratic win the House race for NY-21?: Blake Gendebien26¢
IY 238%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$190
Will Democratic win the House race for TN-05?: Chaz Molder11¢
IY 676%Cliff 8Edge -3¢RVol —Resid —$182thesis ◆
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-14?: Kathy Castor60¢
IY 56%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$158
Will Republican win the House race for FL-25?: Scott Singer31¢
IY 186%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$157
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-07?: Bale Dalton30¢
IY 195%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$98
Will Democratic win the House race for NY-01?: Chris Gallant25¢
IY 251%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$98
Will Republican win the House race for FL-22?: Casey Askar59¢
IY 58%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 155%Resid —$94
Will Democratic win the House race for OH-07?: Brian Poindexter81¢
IY 20%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$81
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-27?: Eliott Rodriguez15¢
IY 473%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$80
507 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets

From market_changes
16h agoKalshi
Will Republican win the House race for WA-05?: Michael Baumgartner
76¢49→76 (+27)
open →
7h agoKalshi
Will Republican win the House race for TN-05?: Charlie Hatcher
81¢89→81 (-8)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-09?: Darren Soto
24¢30→24 (-6)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Will Republican win the House race for FL-12?: Gus Bilirakis
87¢82→87 (+5)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Will Republican win the House race for FL-12?: Gus Bilirakis
82¢87→82 (-5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 Aug 2026 19:08:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXHOUSERACE →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →