SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets — 442 contracts, SF signal on every row.

442 live Kalshi contracts (604 audited). Median implied probability sits at 93%. 1 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXHOUSERACE-IL04-26-CGET -5c). 10 contracts carry a live SF thesis. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXHOUSERACE.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXHOUSERACE
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXHOUSERACE
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXHOUSERACE",
    "label": "2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 442,
    "volume24hSum": 74118.29,
    "hasThesisCount": 10
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 12 Oct 2026Methodology
Disagreement81-4.0
Vol Flow$74.1K-39%
min $33.6Kmax $364.3K
Breadth0%-100.0pp
min 0%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 04:30 UTC
Oct 6past 6d · UTCOct 12 · 16:23

Live contracts

442

Median IY

93¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$74.1K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

10

Top mover

-5¢

KXHOUSERACE-IL04-26-CGET

2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets — liquidity topography (top 122 of 442 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 2.9 → 3050.2%

$10$100$1,000$10,0001d7d30d90d365d3050.21526.62.9

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets

Showing top 20 of 442

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Republican win the House race for OH-10?: Mike Turner84¢
IY 18%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$20.7K
Will Republican win the House race for TX-23?: Brandon Herrera65¢
IY 51%Cliff 2Edge +19¢RVol —Resid —$7.4Kthesis ◆
Will Republican win the House race for MN-05?: John Nagel4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$4.3K
Will Democratic win the House race for NY-21?: Blake Gendebien26¢
IY 268%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$4.2K
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-27?: Eliott Rodriguez35¢
IY 175%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$3.7K
Will Democratic win the House race for MN-05?: Ilhan Omar93¢
IY 7.1%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$3.6K
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-14?: Kathy Castor66¢
IY 49%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$3.1K
Will Democratic win the House race for NV-02?: Teresa Benitez-Thompson29¢
IY 231%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$3.0K
Will Democratic win the House race for NJ-02?: Zack Mullock18¢
IY 430%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.2K
Will Democratic win the House race for TN-09?: Justin J. Pearson12¢
IY 692%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.2K
Will Democratic win the House race for AR-02?: Chris Jones16¢
IY 495%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.1K
Will Democratic win the House race for SC-01?: Nancy S. Lacore27¢
IY 255%Cliff 3Edge +10¢RVol —Resid —$1.1Kthesis ◆
Will Democratic win the House race for TX-03?: Evan Hunt4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$978
Will Republican win the House race for SC-01?: Jenny Costa Honeycutt72¢
IY 37%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$940
Will Democratic win the House race for TN-07?: Darden Copeland3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$894
Will Democratic win the House race for GA-11?: Chris Harden5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$888
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-05?: Elizabeth Lee9¢
IY 954%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$868
Will Democratic win the House race for TN-05?: Chaz Molder7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge -3¢RVol —Resid —$836thesis ◆
Will Democratic win the House race for TX-24?: Kevin Burge6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$738
Will Kevin Kiley win the House race for CA-06?: Kevin Kiley7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$725
442 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets

From market_changes
12h agoKalshi
Will Chris Getty win the House race for IL-04?: Chris Getty
1¢6→1 (-5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 12 Oct 2026 17:08:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXHOUSERACE →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →