SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets — 444 contracts, SF signal on every row.

444 live Kalshi contracts (604 audited). Median implied probability sits at 75%. 669 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXHOUSERACE-WA02-26-D -98c). 2 contracts carry a live SF thesis. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXHOUSERACE.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXHOUSERACE
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXHOUSERACE
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXHOUSERACE",
    "label": "2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 444,
    "volume24hSum": 5602.87,
    "hasThesisCount": 2
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 26 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$5.6K-66%
min $2.3Kmax $37.5K
Breadth-2%-0.9pp
min -24%max 20%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 05:15 UTC
Jun 19past 7d · UTCJun 26 · 04:23

Live contracts

444

Median IY

75¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$5.6K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

2

Top mover

-98¢

KXHOUSERACE-WA02-26-D

2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets — liquidity topography (top 40 of 444 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 2.3 → 2382.2%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d365d2382.21192.22.3

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets

Showing top 20 of 444

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Republican win the House race for NY-21?: Republican party75¢
IY 25%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.6K
Will Democratic win the House race for NY-21?: Democratic party21¢
IY 277%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$520
Will Republican win the House race for AL-02?: Republican party69¢
IY 33%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$408
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-07?: Democratic party28¢
IY 189%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$308
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-14?: LaKesha Womack16¢
IY 387%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$274
Will Democratic win the House race for KY-06?: Zach Dembo37¢
IY 125%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$250
Will Republican win the House race for GA-01?: Jim Kingston82¢
IY 16%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$242
Will Republican win the House race for GA-07?: Rich McCormick81¢
IY 17%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$200
Will Democratic win the House race for IL-12?: Julie Fortier7¢
IY 979%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$186
Will Democratic win the House race for AL-02?: Democratic party30¢
IY 172%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$184
Will Republican win the House race for OH-14?: David Joyce84¢
IY 14%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$157
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-10?: Democratic party93¢
IY 5.5%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$150
Will Republican win the House race for LA-05?: Republican party92¢
IY 6.4%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$125
Will Republican win the House race for NM-01?: Didi Okpareke5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$113
Will Republican win the House race for CA-48?: Republican party12¢
IY 540%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$105
Will Republican win the House race for VA-09?: Republican party97¢
IY 2.3%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$103
Will Democratic win the House race for OH-07?: Brian Poindexter34¢
IY 143%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$79
Will Republican win the House race for CA-05?: Republican party84¢
IY 14%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$73
Will Democratic win the House race for SC-01?: Democratic party25¢
IY 221%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$70
Will Democratic win the House race for OH-10?: Kristina Knickerbocker15¢
IY 417%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$68
444 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets

From market_changes
20h agoKalshi
Will Democratic win the House race for WA-02?: Democratic party
99¢1→99 (+98)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Will Democratic win the House race for WA-02?: Democratic party
1¢99→1 (-98)
open →
6h agoKalshi
Will Democratic win the House race for WA-02?: Democratic party
3¢99→3 (-96)
open →
6h agoKalshi
Will Republican win the House race for TN-03?: Republican party
95¢1→95 (+94)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Will Republican win the House race for TN-03?: Republican party
95¢1→95 (+94)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will Republican win the House race for TN-03?: Republican party
95¢1→95 (+94)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Will Republican win the House race for TN-03?: Republican party
1¢95→1 (-94)
open →
6h agoKalshi
Will Republican win the House race for TN-03?: Republican party
1¢95→1 (-94)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 26 Jun 2026 05:08:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXHOUSERACE →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →