SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets — 503 contracts, SF signal on every row.

503 live Kalshi contracts (604 audited). Median implied probability sits at 89%. 121 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXHOUSERACE-CA26-26-D -92c). 12 contracts carry a live SF thesis. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXHOUSERACE.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXHOUSERACE
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXHOUSERACE
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXHOUSERACE",
    "label": "2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 503,
    "volume24hSum": 9159.22,
    "hasThesisCount": 12
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 18 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$9.2K-82%
min $5.1Kmax $56.3K
Breadth0%+2.3pp
min -100%max 34%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 23:00 UTC
Aug 12past 7d · UTCAug 18 · 22:23

Live contracts

503

Median IY

89¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$9.2K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

12

Top mover

-92¢

KXHOUSERACE-CA26-26-D

2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets — liquidity topography (top 84 of 503 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 3.4 → 2672.0%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d365d2672.01337.73.4

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets

Showing top 20 of 503

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Republican win the House race for FL-25?: Republican party29¢
IY 202%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$2.2K
Will Democratic win the House race for MN-01?: Jake Johnson28¢
IY 212%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 645%Resid —$2.0K
Will Republican win the House race for VA-05?: John McGuire80¢
IY 21%Cliff 4Edge +2¢RVol —Resid —$679thesis ◆
Will Democratic win the House race for OH-07?: Brian Poindexter76¢
IY 26%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$536
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-05?: Mark Lamb91¢
IY 8.2%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$505
Will Republican win the House race for AL-01?: Jerry Carl96¢
IY 3.4%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$500
Will Republican win the House race for AL-05?: Dale Strong94¢
IY 5.3%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$500
Will Republican win the House race for NC-09?: Richard Hudson71¢
IY 34%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$292
Will Democratic win the House race for AL-07?: Terri Sewell92¢
IY 7.2%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$201
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-08?: Abe Hamadeh85¢
IY 15%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$200
Will Republican win the House race for OH-07?: Max Miller23¢
IY 277%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$198
Will Democratic win the House race for TX-23?: Katy Padilla Stout30¢
IY 193%Cliff 2Edge 0¢RVol —Resid —$133thesis ◆
Will Republican win the House race for NC-06?: Addison McDowell84¢
IY 16%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$109
Will Republican win the House race for SC-02?: Joe Wilson89¢
IY 10%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$105
Will Republican win the House race for NC-05?: Virginia Foxx89¢
IY 10%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$105
Will Democratic win the House race for VA-06?: Beth Macy7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge +11¢RVol —Resid —$100thesis ◆
Will Democratic win the House race for AL-02?: Shomari Figures20¢
IY 331%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
Will Democratic win the House race for TN-05?: Chaz Molder10¢
IY 744%Cliff 9Edge -3¢RVol —Resid —$63thesis ◆
Will Democratic win the House race for VA-05?: Tom Perriello14¢
IY 508%Cliff 6Edge +2¢RVol —Resid —$56thesis ◆
Will Republican win the House race for GA-12?: Rick Allen84¢
IY 16%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$55
503 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets

From market_changes
6h agoKalshi
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-26?: Jacqui Irwin
94¢2→94 (+92)
open →
7h agoKalshi
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-26?: Jacqui Irwin
2¢94→2 (-92)
open →
6h agoKalshi
Will Democratic win the House race for CT-03?: Rosa DeLauro
94¢4→94 (+90)
open →
7h agoKalshi
Will Democratic win the House race for CT-03?: Rosa DeLauro
4¢94→4 (-90)
open →
7h agoKalshi
Will Democratic win the House race for CO-07?: Brittany Pettersen
4¢93→4 (-89)
open →
6h agoKalshi
Will Democratic win the House race for CT-02?: Joe Courtney
94¢5→94 (+89)
open →
6h agoKalshi
Will Democratic win the House race for CO-07?: Brittany Pettersen
93¢4→93 (+89)
open →
7h agoKalshi
Will Democratic win the House race for CT-02?: Joe Courtney
5¢94→5 (-89)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 18 Aug 2026 22:38:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXHOUSERACE →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →