Republican party · SENATEMT-26
Republican party is priced at 75¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 74¢ bid, 75¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside SENATEMT-26.
Price history
75¢ current
Contract brief
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Republican party
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Republican party 74¢
Range
2¢-74¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
SENATEMT-26-R
May 27, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
74¢
Ask
75¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$13
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · SENATEMT-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
74 / 75¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
SENATEMT-26-R
Event family
SENATEMT-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Republican party 74¢
Current share
1%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.485
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.