What is the current probability for "Will Roman Anthony win AL Hank Aaron Award?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 8, 2026. 231 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Roman Anthony win AL Hank Aaron Award?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3798.5% and 6.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Roman Anthony win AL Hank Aaron Award?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Roman Anthony win AL Hank Aaron Award?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Roman Anthony win AL Hank Aaron Award?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 8, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $58 open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $58·Closes Dec 8, 2026·231d remaining

KXMLBALHAARON-26-RANT

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $58 open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable. The 3,719% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a thin, low-probability market where even tiny position sizes can generate outsized percentage returns, though the Cliff Risk Index of 24 suggests meaningful uncertainty in the pricing model. With 236 days to expiry, there's ample time for Roman Anthony's 2026 season performance to materially shift this probability, but traders should demand significant liquidity before committing capital.

Resolution rules

If Roman Anthony wins the Pro Baseball American League Hank Aaron Award in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3798.5%

IY (No) 6.6%

Adj IY 1899%

CRI 24

Overround 0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3798.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1899%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:20:21 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:08:17 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBALHAARON-26-RANT yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →